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Copper Prices Plunge ahead of Independence Day
July 5, 2009 @ 6:33 pm In Feature Articles
By Leia Michele Toovey- Exclusive to Copper Investing News [1]
[2]U.S. copper futures ended lower on Thursday, as a stronger dollar and concerns about economic recovery weighed on values. Higher than expected unemployment figures, coupled with weak housing figures triggered fears that an economic recovery is still far off. A rising greenback further cooled the copper market.
A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-priced metals less attractive to non-U.S. investors. Copper for September settled down 2.50 cents at $2.3055 a lb on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division. New York commodity markets were closed Friday in observance of Independence Day.
Copper's downside was limited by data showing new orders for U.S. manufactured goods jumped 1.2 per cent in May, their largest increase in nearly a year. Manufacturing data coming out of China, Europe and the United States on Wednesday all pointed to improved economic conditions. U.S manufacturing shrank in June but at a slower pace than in May, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Similar surveys in Europe also showed manufacturing contracting less than initially thought, while China's output grew modestly.
A strong recovery in Chinese demand has resulted in Morgan Stanley hiking its 2009 and 2010 copper price forecasts. The bank raised its 2009 copper price forecast by 48 per cent to $2.14 per lb from $1.45 previously; for 2010, the forecast was raised 52 per cent to $2.50 per lb. "Demand from China for strategic reserve purposes and commercial restocking has been a main driver of price support," Morgan Stanley said.
"In the near term, however, there was a risk that an end to Chinese restocking and a seasonal lull in demand will contribute to a price correction. Surveys of manufacturing showed the sector in China expanded modestly in June. Demand for copper outside China remained weak on account of the global recession, but Morgan Stanley noted copper has held up better than most investors expected. "In base metals, our preferred exposure is copper, with short term downside price risk providing a new entry point after the recent strong rally," it said.
Copper's downward momentum came in just a day after prices experienced significant upside. On Wednesday, copper and gold [3] prices soared after the dollar plunged on talk that China was pushing the G8 to debate an end to the greenback as the world's reserve currency.
Copper touched two-week highs in London and New York. U.S. gold futures neared $950 an ounce. China's push has is a surprise to all, considering the greenback accounts for roughly 75 per cent of the country's $2 trillion worth of reserves. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange [4] touched $5,187.50, the highest since June 15, before ending up $120 at $5,090 a tonne. Copper for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division jumped 5.85 cents, or 2.6 per cent, to close at $2.3305 a lb, after hitting its highest level in 2-1/2 weeks at $2.3690.
India copper futures edged lower on Friday on the back of America's weak jobs data. Rising inventories in Shanghai and London also pressured the red metal downward. The most active August copper contract was 1.28 per cent lower at INR 242.35 per kg after hitting a low of INR 240.7.
Company News
Freeport-McMoRan' [5]s chief executive said that copper prices will need to rise before the company will further invest funds into copper exploration and mining. Currently, the company has interests in Chile and Peru. "Right now we need to see more demand for our product," before expanding in the copper-rich countries, Harry Conger, the company's president for the Americas, said at an economics conference in Chile.
Freeport, like many global miners, has had to re-evaluate projects since metals prices sank in late 2008 before starting to recover. "We have a bright outlook for copper in general, but it's longer term," he said.
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[2] Image: http://copperinvestingnews.com/files/2008/07/copper-weathervane310x210.jpg
[3] gold: http://goldinvestingnews.com/
[4] London Metal Exchange: http://www.lme.co.uk
[5] Freeport-McMoRan’: http://www.fcx.com/
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