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Copper still in a bull market?
August 21, 2008 @ 8:29 pm In Copper Articles
[1]By Leia Michele Toovey - Exclusive to Copper Investing News
US copper was pushed to a two-week high on early Thursday trading, as a decline in the American currency [2] made dollar-dominated commodities more attractive to investors. Signs that China, the world's biggest user of the metal, may have a refreshing demand picture as the Olympics close, added extra impetus to the dollar-driven ascent.
Rising crude prices also contributed some what to the high through their influence on the dollar. Oil rose to US$116 a barrel on Thursday, climbing for a third straight session, as Washington's missile shield deal [3] with Poland angered Russia, adding to international tension. Higher oil prices weakened the dollar, making commodities denominated in the U.S. unit less expensive for holders of other currencies.
Copper for September delivery HGU8 shot up 12.10 cents or nearly 3.6 per cent to US$3.5180 per lb on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, its highest level since August 4. Indian copper futures traded up on Thursday, the benchmark August copper MCCQ8 on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) was up 1.1 percent at Rs330.75 per kg.
Copper stockpiles earmarked for delivery out of London Metal Exchange-registered warehouses in South Korea more than tripled to 9,025 metric tons, the Exchange said today. The dollar weakened against the yen and the Euro, making metals cheaper for holders of other currencies. There is a growing ease that with the Olympics soon to end, Chinese demand [4] will be refreshed. Analysts have been holding their breath- waiting to see how the consuming giant will respond to that milestone.
At one side of the scale, economies tend to weaken after the Olympics, as the pre-Olympic construction boom paints an artificially inflated demand picture. The 'boom-then bust' phenomena usually occurs when the host country has one major economic center-China does not fall into this category. China is also unique in the fact that they actually had to curb manufacturing leading up to the Olympics in effort to control their pollution levels. Analysts are still holding their breath, but declining stock piles in South Korea do point to a refreshed demand.
So far, over the last few months, the metals have been performing below expectations. The LME index of 6 industrial metals has lost 11 per cent since the end of June on concern that weakening economies in Europe and the US may trim demand for metals. Jim Rogers, Chairman of Rogers Holdings had a point to address when it came to this. Addressing a conference in China, he said he did not see it as the end of the bull market. Until either a lot of supply comes on stream or the economy collapses, the bull market would continue, he added.
Last Wednesday, nickel investing news [5] had reported on how nickel companies were struggling, forced to cope with low metal prices and also increasing production costs. The cost of production for nickel is influence by fuel, as well sulphur. The latter is used to make sulphuric acid which in turn is used to break down laterite nickel ore. So far this year, sulphur has quadrupled in price.
There was some cheer for copper producers - their refining charges has not been affected to the same degree as nickel producers. Yesterday, Norddeutsche Affinerie (NAFG.DE), Europe's largest cooper producer, announced that mid-year copper treatment and refining charges were fixed by Japanese smelters at the same level as at the beginning of this year. Copper treatment and refining charges are fees charged by copper smelters to convert ore into metal. They make up a major part of the global copper refining industry's turnover. "There is also discussion about production cutbacks at the smelters in the second half of 2008 which could change the market balance in favour of concentrate availability. Meanwhile, the supply of copper scrap has declined because of falling copper prices and the quieter summer season", Norddeutsche said.
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URLs in this post:
[1] Image: http://copperinvestingnews.com/files/2008/08/bull310x210.jpg
[2] American currency: http://business.smh.com.au/business/us-dollar-slides-as-rate-rise-chances-fade-20080821-3zgm.html
[3] deal: http://www.nationalpost.com/news/world/story.html?id=737778
[4] Chinese demand: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-08/21/content_9573755.htm
[5] nickel investing news: http://nickelinvestingnews.com/
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