How low can copper go?
By Leia Michele Toovey- Exclusive to Copper Investing News
With little relief in sight when it comes to the global economic crisis, analysts are expecting further downside for copper.
So far this year, COMEX copper prices are down nearly 60 per cent since their record high above $4.00 a lb in July. It is anticipated that U.S. copper futures could cheapen to $1.50 per lb, a level unseen in over three years, as the global economic outlook weakens.
On Wednesday, U.S. copper futures for December delivery HGZ8 fell as far as $1.6210 a lb on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s COMEX division, $0.55 below its record October low of $1.6265.To some analysts, the market’s intraday low was indicative of the near-term weakness in the economically-sensitive metal, and the next downside target could be $1.50. But others said technical buying at $1.60 levels could keep copper from reaching further lows right away.
Analysts doubt the drop in China’s production of copper and other metals will lead to tighter supply at a time when for raw materials is weakening. China said its output of the industrial metal dropped 8 per cent on the year to an eight-month low in October as manufacturers cut production in response to weakening demand. The London Metal Exchange-registered copper warehouse stocks have been steadily building in November, climbing more than 32,000 tonnes to their highest levels since March 2004.
Copper prices and stocks got a boost Monday with China’s announcement of a $600 billion stimulus plan geared toward construction and infrastructure projects. Copper dropped mid week, but by Thursday the red metal was steady as the weaker dollar offset demand concerns after data showed China’s output fell in October as producers responded to the global slowdown.
Three-month copper MCU3 on the London Metal Exchange dropped as low as $3,520 a tonne, it’s weakest since September 2005. However, later it pared losses to trade up $to $3,640 a tonne as the dollar lost ground against the Euro. With Germany, Europe’s largest economy plunging into a recession and China weaker than it has been in seven years there is great reinforcing evidence the financial crisis is plunging the world into a painful downturn.
Company news
Anvil Mining Ltd (TSX:AVM) the producer of copper in the Democratic Republic of Congo, posted a third- quarter loss and halted construction of the $380 million Kinsevere metallurgical plant while it secures more funding. Debt financing may be available in the first half of 2009, Yellowknife, Canada-based Anvil said today in a statement. The company is curtailing all but essential capital expenditure. The company lost $17.3 million in the quarter, compared with a profit of $39 million a year earlier. Sales declined 44 percent to $42.3 million.
Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE:NEM) will delay a development decision on its Minas Conga copper-gold project in Peru until the first quarter of 2009 because of the global financial crisis.
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc will continue to review its copper mining operations and may also cut copper production in response to market conditions.
Codelco will reduce its fee added to prices to cover shipping and insurance costs, to $64 a metric tonne for South Korea in 2009 from $99 a tonne this year. It will cut the premium for Japan to $65 a tonne from $102. The fees were $43 for Korea and $47 for Japan in 2003. The reduction in fees may force other copper companies to lower prices to stay competitive.
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