By Leia Michele Toovey-Exclusive to Copper Investing News ^[1]

^[2]Copper's rapid ascent in 2009 reopened the question- are we there yet? Since the economic crisis started everyone has been seeking the answer to the elusive question- have we hit the bottom? The red metal, considered a barometer of economic health, has rallied 33 per cent so for this year.  Half of the gains took place in March.  With this technical fact, is it safe to say yes, we are there; now, bring on the rebound?

The numbers are very encouraging, but on the back of massive and rapid slides of commodities ^[3] prices, many analysts are only willing to make forecasts one step at a time.  The advance in copper and other base metals is being labeled as predominantly technical, but nobody wants to stick their neck out to proclaim that the trend has changed until the prices spend some time at current higher levels. What path the metal will take in the coming months is anyone's guess, however, market chatter is pointing to a near term price target of $5,000 per tonne. 

Copper's first impetus in the New Year came from steady withdrawals in London warehouse ^[4] supply and increased purchases by China's State Reserve Bureau. The latest gains were fuelled by the better-than-expected U.S. durable goods report. "The downturn in durable goods production is way overdone and there will be a significant bounce soon," David Thurtell, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in London, said by phone. "That implies a significant bounce in metals uptake as well." A drop in the greenback also boosted the metal. The dollar slipped after U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner ^[5] said he was "quite open" to China's suggestion of moving toward currency system linked to International Monetary Fund Strategic Drawing Rights.

Over in Japan, the figures are pessimistic. With no sign of recovery in sight, local copper smelters will likely curb production. Japan's smelters have cut production by about 10 per cent since the start of the year. From next week, Japanese copper smelters are due to start announcing production plans for the first half of the new financial year that starts in April. Japan's demand for copper wire and cables is expected to sink to its lowest in 34 years in the next business year.

Data released last Thursday showed production of rolled copper products dived nearly 60 per cent from last year — the biggest on record drop. "There's concern in the industry as we cannot tell when we will hit bottom," said Kazuhiko Ohashi, chairman of the Japanese Electric Wire and Cable Makers' Association. The association — whose members account for about 60 per cent of Japan's copper use, said copper wire and cable shipments in the year to March 2010 are likely to fall 7.9 per cent to an estimated 705,000 tonnes, the lowest since 1975.

Company news

On Wednesday, UBS Investment Research upgraded Teck Cominco's shares from "neutral" to "buy". At C$7.47 per share, the company's stock has doubled in value in the past three weeks. UBS upgraded the shares to "buy" from "neutral" and boosted its target to C$9 from C$5, based on expectations that 2009 hard coking coal prices will be $129 a tonne. Stronger coal prices will both boost Teck's ability to use cash to pay down the debt and make it easier for the firm to sell off a minority stake in its coal assets to raise funds. Copper prices have climbed about 15 per cent so far in March, extending further optimism to Teck's  earnings potential.

First Quantum Minerals Ltd., has announced a share sale to help fund its mining projects. The Vancouver based company will sell sell 8.13 million common shares at C$37.00 each to raise C$300.6 million, the company said in a statement. First Quantum said it will use the proceeds "to continue with its committed capital projects, to further strengthen its capital position and for general corporate purposes." First Quantum announced March 6 its first quarterly loss in more than five years after the price of copper plunged and the company wrote down the value of some assets. First Quantum has joined larger rival Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. in slashing spending on capital projects and salaries to conserve cash.